BigBear.ai did not close lower on Monday because the third quarter printed a loss. The official NYSE close on 2 November 2026 was $2.58, up from $2.12 on 26 October, after a $91.9 million net loss and a $76.7 million goodwill impairment. From that $2.58 close, the 20 session bull case is $3.12, the base is $2.42, and the bear case is $2.05, with the path ending on Tuesday 1 December 2026. The useful point is not another award headline. Of the $330.125 million backlog in the 10-Q, only $76.490 million is funded. The same release that raised the revenue range booked the impairment because of a change in forecast. The new midpoint implies a fourth quarter slightly below the third. The last 90 sessions have negative drift, so the base sits under the cited close.
Key facts
- Official close: $2.58 on Monday 2 November 2026, from the Nasdaq historical file for BBAI, open $2.64, high $2.74, low $2.55, volume 25,384,020. The info endpoint lists the NYSE. A premarket print of $2.5903 on 3 November was discarded.
- Path: bull $3.12, base $2.42, bear $2.05 over 20 sessions through Tuesday 1 December 2026, about 20.9 percent above, 6.2 percent below, and 20.5 percent below $2.58. Mu is -0.00309914. Sigma is 0.03762723.
- Third quarter revenue was $43.581 million, which the 27 October release calls 31 percent above $33.143 million. Gross margin was 31.2 percent, up 878 basis points. Net loss was $91.854 million, including a $76.737 million goodwill impairment. Source: Exhibit 99.1, filed 28 October 2026.
- Guidance is $150 million to $165 million, 5 percent above the prior midpoint. Nine month revenue of $114.765 million leaves about $42.735 million for the fourth quarter at the $157.5 million midpoint, about 1.9 percent under the third quarter. That is arithmetic on the filing.
- Backlog at 30 September 2026 was $330.125 million in the Form 10-Q filed 28 October 2026. Funded was $76.490 million, unfunded $163.661 million, priced unexercised options $87.414 million, and unpriced options $2.560 million. Funded is 23.2 percent of the total.
- More than 25 new wins since the second quarter were worth more than $225 million in contract value. The release footnote defines that as total potential value, including unexercised options and ceilings, and says it does not necessarily reflect funded amounts.
- Cash and investments sum to $400.662 million. Notes still outstanding have principal of $17.668 million and mature on 15 December 2026. Jefferies still had 100 million unsold shares on 30 September. The 20 day average is $2.34 and the 50 day average is $2.66.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading of 27 October is that BigBear.ai missed and the stock stayed down. Donald Dean posted that night that after hours trade was $2.24, down 5.3 percent, with a $0.19 loss against his $0.06 estimate and revenue of $43.6 million against his $38.9 million estimate. The filing matches the loss, the revenue, the $150 million to $165 million outlook, the $330 million backlog, and the $76.7 million impairment. It does not match a tape that stayed at $2.24.
The Nasdaq file shows the 27 October official close at $2.35, on volume of 40,294,040, up 10.8 percent from $2.12. That log return, 0.1030, is the largest absolute move in the last 90 sessions and stays in sigma. Dropping it would cut sigma only to 0.03609074, and that figure is not used. The next official closes were $2.46, $2.67, and $2.60. Monday’s $2.58 was 0.77 percent under Friday. From $2.12 on 26 October to Monday is a rise of 21.7 percent. Dean’s later post aimed at $2.50 by Friday. Friday closed at $2.60, and Monday is still above $2.50.
A guidance raise is also not a promise that the fourth quarter steps up. The release sets $150 million to $165 million and calls that 5 percent above the previous midpoint. The $157.5 million midpoint is 5 percent above $150 million. TipRanks on 23 October, before the print, said the old band was $135 million to $165 million. Nine month revenue of $114.765 million leaves $42.735 million to the new midpoint, about 1.9 percent under third quarter revenue of $43.581 million. The floor implies $35.235 million and the ceiling $50.235 million.
The same release booked a goodwill impairment of $76.737 million, “primarily driven by a change in forecast during the third quarter of 2026.” It does not name the forecast. Goodwill fell from $241.100 million at year end 2025 to $161.665 million, and subtracting the charge does not explain the whole drop. The floor went up and goodwill was written down in the same quarter.
Who is exposed
The 10-Q says 481,390,957 shares were outstanding on 23 October 2026. Times $2.58, that is about $1.24 billion. About 963,000 shares were issued after the 30 September count of 480,428,208, which is not a draw on the 100 million share program. Monday is 52.2 percent under the $5.40 close of 31 December 2025 and 59.8 percent under the $6.41 close of 6 January. The info endpoint shows a 52 week range of $2.07 to $7.40. The $400.662 million of cash and investments is about $0.83 a share, about 32 percent of the close.
The 2026 notes still have principal of $17.668 million, pay 6.0 percent, and mature on 15 December 2026. They were issued at $200.0 million on 7 December 2021. Net debt is $16.685 million, all current. The conversion price is $10.61, about 311 percent above $2.58. The filing’s 18,844,600 share count matches the original issue, not the stub. The 2029 notes, par $124.6 million, converted into about 38.1 million shares before 16 January 2026. Jefferies can still sell 100 million shares. None had been sold by 30 September. At $2.58 that unused capacity is $258 million gross, arithmetic only. The old program used Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. MarketBeat said on 28 October, citing Benzinga, that Cantor Fitzgerald research cut a target from $4.00 to $3.00 and stayed neutral. Those are not treated as the same desk.
On the call transcribed by The Motley Fool on 28 October, McAleenan added NASA and the Department of Veterans Affairs to the FBI, Coast Guard, and Energy names in the release, plus two border subcontracts, one on SAIC’s team and one he spelled as Unison. TipRanks on 23 October spells that partner Unissant. The pages disagree. A government software tape can fall without a cancelled contract, which is what happened in Palantir’s drop below $190. The FAA award Palantir did not win separated a headline from the vendor. Nvidia and Palantir tightening Anthropic use is the secure deployment point, stated by other firms.
The tape against the primary documents
Secondary accounts are still pricing the award line and a street target. The filings price a smaller funded book and a forecast change.
| Item | Tape or secondary account | Primary document |
|---|---|---|
| More than $225 million of awards | Wins since the second quarter | Exhibit footnote: total contract value includes options and ceilings and is not necessarily funded |
| Backlog of $330 million, up 22 percent since the second quarter | The release and Ricker on the call | 10-Q: funded $76.490 million, unfunded $163.661 million, priced options $87.414 million, unpriced options $2.560 million. Versus 31 December 2025 the total was $248.060 million |
| The stock sold the print | After hours $2.24 on 27 October in Donald Dean’s post | Official closes: $2.35 that day, $2.60 on 30 October, $2.58 on 2 November |
| A target near $3 to $4.50 | TipRanks average $4.00 on 23 October. Cantor cut to $3.00. MarketBeat consensus $4.50 | The title uses $3.12 and $2.05. The saved Nasdaq info payload has no analyst target field |
| A bigger fourth quarter | Range lifted to $150 million to $165 million | The midpoint implies about $42.735 million in the fourth quarter, slightly under $43.581 million |
Adding the $225 million line to the backlog would double count. Options together are $89.974 million, 27.3 percent of the total. Funded backlog rose from $54.859 million to $76.490 million. That is not a $330 million funded book. MarketBeat says the $0.19 loss missed a $0.06 consensus and revenue beat $29.93 million. TipRanks had expected a $0.05 loss on that same revenue figure. Dean used $38.9 million. The filing is $43.581 million and a $0.19 loss.
What named people have said
Kevin McAleenan, chief executive of BigBear.ai, said in the exhibit: “We’re raising our full-year revenue guidance after another strong quarter of revenue growth, a series of contract wins, and improved margins.” He named recompetes and more than 25 new contracts, including the FBI, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Department of Energy, and classified awards. The company account on X posted on 28 October that he repeated the 31 percent growth, a third straight quarter of organic growth, and the raised guidance on NYSE Live.
Sean Ricker, chief financial officer, said in the same exhibit: “Revenue grew again in the third quarter, our third straight quarter of organic growth since the end of last year. AI adoption in our markets is still in its early stages, and our recent wins show strong and growing demand.” On the call he said the $43.6 million was substantially driven by the platform acquired as Ask Sage in December 2025, and he cited quarter over quarter growth of 6.7 percent and then 18.6 percent. The release uses that same “substantially driven” line. “Organic” here is not a figure that excludes Ask Sage, and the 10-Q gives no third quarter dollar split for the platform.
Ricker said about $17 million of convertible debt matures in December and that the company expects to enter 2027 debt free. McAleenan said the midpoint would be 23 percent growth over last year. Benzinga posted on 29 October his line that attackers are using generative AI with far fewer resources and far less time. Jonathan Ruykhaver of Cantor Fitzgerald, quoted by TipRanks on 23 October, had a Hold and a $4 target. He called the prior quarter “solid” and said first half revenue “just clears the low end” of the outlook. Against $2.58, $4.00 is 55.0 percent higher and the later $3.00 cut is 16.3 percent higher. Those are not the 87.79 percent TipRanks printed that day. A Northland cut to $3.50 appears only as a headline on that page.
The financing tension
Cash and investments of $400.662 million cover the $17.668 million principal many times. Paying the notes on 15 December would match the debt free 2027 line and would not fund the $163.661 million unfunded backlog or the $89.974 million of options. Option periods sit at the government’s discretion. Dilution is unused capacity, not a completed third quarter sale. The exhibit shows no 2026 at the market proceeds in the quarter or the nine months, against $637.073 million in the 2025 nine month column. Authorized common stock rose from 500 million to 1 billion on 9 June 2026. Basic shares were already 480,324,180 against 396,589,354 a year earlier, up 21.1 percent, including the January conversion.
Quarterly operating cash use was $9.550 million, near $9.585 million a year earlier. Nine month use was $49.758 million against $20.117 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $9.080 million. Operating loss was $99.959 million. Stripping the impairment is arithmetic of $23.222 million, not a company non GAAP line. Selling, general and administrative expense was $31.308 million, 72 percent of revenue in the 10-Q, and research and development was $5.385 million.
What happens next
The first dated test is Monday 16 November 2026, the tenth session. Those maths are not the title, because that bull sits inside a banned band. The tape test is whether the close holds above the 20 day average near $2.34 and above the $2.12 closing low. Monday’s $2.58 is inside the prior five session range of $2.11 to $2.67, while Monday’s high of $2.74 cleared that range. The close is about $0.24 above the 20 day average and about $0.08 under the 50 day average of $2.66. A fade through $2.34 would mark the bounce as a few sessions.
The title date is Tuesday 1 December 2026, the twentieth session. The $3.12 bull needs the negative drift to stop. The $2.42 base is that drift and sits under the close because mu is negative. The $2.05 bear is the drift minus one scaled standard deviation. A sale from the unused Jefferies capacity, or a return toward $2.12, fits the bear and is not a prediction that either happens. The third date is Tuesday 15 December 2026, when the notes mature. Cash settlement would not turn the stub into the 18.8 million shares tied to the original issue. Year end, 41 sessions out, was computed and is not the title, because that pair collides with an older English page.
Bull, base, and bear
The inputs are the last 90 daily log returns in the Nasdaq file, from 25 June 2026 through 2 November 2026. Mu is -0.00309914. Sigma is 0.03762723, the sample standard deviation. N is 20 and the square root of N is 4.47214. Base is the spot times e to the power of N times mu, $2.42. Bull adds 1.5 sigma times that square root, $3.12. Bear subtracts 1.0 sigma times that square root, $2.05. The drift bull is above the spot, so a no drift bull is not used. The 27 October session stays in the sample.
At 41 sessions, through 31 December 2026, the prints are $3.26, $2.27, and $1.79. That bull is $0.84 from $4.10 and that bear is $0.04 from $1.75. At 10 sessions the prints are $2.99, $2.50, and $2.22, and the bull is $0.77 from the banned $2.22. At 15 sessions they are $3.06, $2.46, and $2.13, inside $1 of $2.22 and $1.18 on both sides. At 20 sessions, $3.12 is $0.90 from $2.22 and $0.98 from $4.10, and $2.05 is within $1 of both $1.18 and $1.75. The bands cover every bull this volatility prints above $2.58. The rule then uses 20 sessions and names Tuesday 1 December 2026. A street target was not put in the title. A Friday 30 October spot would have made N 42 and the bull $3.27, which also collides.
| Case | Price | Versus the $2.58 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $3.12 | About 20.9 percent higher | The negative drift stops, the close holds the post print bounce, and the market treats the raised floor as the forecast that matters rather than the impairment |
| Base | $2.42 | About 6.2 percent lower | The recent drift continues for 20 sessions. The base is the drift only. It is under the close because mu is negative |
| Bear | $2.05 | About 20.5 percent lower | The same drift minus one scaled standard deviation. A fade through $2.12, or a sale into the unused Jefferies capacity, fits this case and is not required for the arithmetic |
This is not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the BigBear.ai stock prediction through 1 December 2026?
The bull case is $3.12 and the bear case is $2.05. The base is $2.42. All three use Monday 2 November’s $2.58 official close, the last 90 daily log returns, and 20 sessions. The year end bull of $3.26 collided with an older title, and the 10 and 15 session bulls also sat inside a banned $1 band, so this is the last horizon named for the title. It is a distribution, not a brokerage target.
Why is the base under the close if the stock just bounced?
The bounce is real on the official closes, from $2.12 on 26 October to $2.58 on 2 November. The base does not use those five sessions alone. It uses the mean of the last 90 daily log returns, and that mean is negative. Twenty times a negative mean pulls the base to $2.42. A short bounce can sit on top of a longer decline, which is what the file shows from the $6.41 January close.
Does the $330 million backlog mean $330 million of funded work?
No. The 10-Q splits the $330.125 million into funded backlog of $76.490 million, unfunded backlog of $163.661 million, priced unexercised options of $87.414 million, and unpriced unexercised options of $2.560 million. The release’s 22 percent increase is versus the second quarter. The more than $225 million award line is total potential value, including options and ceilings, and the company’s own footnote says it is not necessarily funded.
How can guidance go up in the same quarter as a goodwill write down?
The release does both. It sets 2026 revenue at $150 million to $165 million, 5 percent higher at the midpoint, and it records a $76.737 million non cash impairment primarily driven by a change in forecast during the third quarter. The midpoint does not require a fourth quarter above the $43.581 million just reported. The write down says some forecast inside the company changed enough to cut goodwill. The document does not say which forecast.
What happens to the convertible notes in December?
The remaining 2026 notes have principal of $17.668 million and mature on 15 December 2026, two weeks after this horizon. The conversion price is $10.61, far above $2.58. Ricker said the company expects to be debt free entering 2027. Cash and investments of $400.662 million cover that principal. The 18.8 million share conversion figure in the filing belongs to the original $200 million issue, not to the stub that is left.
Are the $3 and $4 street targets the same as this bull case?
No. Cantor Fitzgerald cut a target from $4.00 to $3.00 on 28 October, MarketBeat’s consensus that day was $4.50, and TipRanks printed a $4.00 average on 23 October. Those are analyst numbers from the pages that carried them. The $3.12 bull and the $2.05 bear are the 20 session distribution around Monday’s official close. They can sit near a target without being that target.
